Who's the Last Survivor?
A look back at Infoplease predictions for the final castaway
by Gerry Brown
These Predictions Were Made in the Summer of 2000.
The alliance worked like a charm. Richard, Susan, Rudy and Kelly, as the show's motto recommends, out-witted, out-played and out-lasted the competition on Survivor, the television phenomenon of the year. Now it's down to the Final Four.
After all the plotting and scheming the alliance will now be forced to eat its own kind with an estimated 40 million viewers, many at Survivor viewing-parties, set to watch every bite in the two-hour finale of the top rated show (followed by a one-hour reunion special hosted by Bryant Gumbel). Here's where the immunity challenges really count.
Final Tribal Council
On Wednesday night's show there will be two immunity challenges and three tribal councils. At the final tribal council, when the tribe has at last been reduced to a duet, a seven-person jury (made up of Greg, Jenna, Gervase, Colleen, Sean, and the next two voted off) will vote on who gets the $1 million grand prize.
Say what you will about these four surviving folks, but the bottom line is that the rest of the players were too dumb to last this long. It became painfully obvious over the 13 weeks of the show that there was an alliance on the island and when the other players (slow learners all) finally realized it, they did nothing, claiming that they didn't want to win that way. Did they think they had entered a popularity contest?
Infoplease Picks the Survivor
Here's how it should all shake out:
First off, it's in everyone's interest to keep Richard in it until the final two because you know that everyone hates Richard and that if it's down to Richard and someone else, the other person will win the million by default. So Richard has already advanced to the final two and only needs to try to win immunity in order to keep Kelly or Rudy from winning it.
If it comes down to Richard and Rudy, Richard may believe that the elderly Rudy will be the sentimental choice. He stands a much better (although still fairly slim) chance against Sue in the final vote. Richard may also think that people could dislike Sue enough to let him sneak away with the million (but if he's honest with himself, he has to know that his best shot is the $100,000 runner-up prize).
Also, another clue to Richard's final position is his arrest on charges of child-abuse (later dismissed) for forcing his 9-year-old son to exercise in the middle of the night, shortly after returning from the island. We can probably assume a newly-minted millionaire wouldn't be so uptight about staying fit.
So that eliminates Richard and all but guarantees him second place.
Also, we can probably safely assume that 73-year-old Rudy probably won't win either of the immunity challenges, and that leaves him wide open to a vote. If Kelly wins the first immunity, she votes for Sue or Rudy. But then Sue and Richard vote for Rudy. If Sue, Richard or somehow Rudy wins the first immunity, everyone votes for Kelly because they don't want to take the chance of her winning the second one and then having to face her in the final vote.
So the final three will be either Sue, Richard and Kelly or Sue, Richard and Rudy. And unless Rudy can win the second immunity (reportedly an endurance related challenge) then it will be down to Sue and Richard.
So, unless Kelly wins both immunity challenges or Rudy can somehow win the second one, Sue will win it all. You heard it here first. Of course it could turn out totally different. To be honest I have no idea what's going to happen. But I'm going to start grilling the stingray and boiling the rice for my Survivor party thinking about it.
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